SpaceX shares gained 23% in their first week of trading after the company's historic initial public offering, but historical data suggests the stock price may decline over the next 12 months. The IPO was priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed its first week higher, with trading from June 12 through June 18. However, an analysis of 10 of the biggest IPOs from 1999 through 2023 shows that eight of them saw their stock prices fall in the following year, with an average decline of 12%. If SpaceX follows that pattern, its stock could settle at about $140 a year from now, only $5 above the IPO price. The company faces risks including high capital spending and unproven technology, even as investors are drawn to its rocket launch, satellite connectivity, and AI businesses.
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