SpaceX stock may face further declines ahead of its Aug. 4 earnings report and an Aug. 6 insider selling window, but history suggests a severe sell-off could be overdone. When Meta Platforms went public in 2012, its stock fell 53% roughly four months after the IPO before rebounding 140% over the next year and ultimately gaining 3,250% from that low. A similar 53% drop from SpaceX’s $135 IPO price would put shares around $63, and the stock is already trading down about 52% from its 52-week high set shortly after the June 12 debut. SpaceX’s S-1 filing listed a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with $26.5 trillion tied to artificial intelligence, and the company has already secured deals with Alphabet and Anthropic to rent compute capacity from its data centers, potentially generating $26 billion in annual revenue. In January, SpaceX applied to the FCC to launch 1 million AI satellites as space-based data centers, with the first round expected in 2028, which could give it an edge amid pushback against ground-based data centers in 15 U.S. states.
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