SpaceX-Tesla merger math worsens as both stocks slide

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โดย Fortune·Read original

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SpaceX may have missed its window to buy Tesla on favorable terms after both stocks fell sharply, making a potential deal far more dilutive for SpaceX shareholders. On the Tesla Q2 earnings call, Elon Musk declined to rule out a combination, citing growing overlap and collaborations such as the Digital Optimus project and Starlink integration into Tesla vehicles. Following SpaceX’s June 12 IPO at $135, its stock peaked at $211 on July 16, giving it a $2.8 trillion valuation that would have required issuing only 57% more shares to acquire Tesla at $1.6 trillion. By July 24, SpaceX had dropped 46% to $113, cutting its market cap to $1.49 trillion, while Tesla fell 24% to $308 and a $1.22 trillion valuation, meaning SpaceX would now need to issue 82% of its shares and leave its investors with just 55% of the combined entity. The shift turns what looked like a cheap stock-for-stock deal into one where SpaceX would heavily overpay, risking a share-price collapse reminiscent of the AOL-Time Warner merger.