Stagnant home sales halve growth in big and bulky last-mile delivery

Industry
โดย FreightWaves·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Growth in last-mile delivery for big and bulky e-commerce items has slowed by half as stagnant home sales curb demand for large-ticket discretionary items like furniture and appliances, according to a report from Armstrong & Associates and the National Home Delivery Association. The $10.6 billion market for residential delivery of oversized and heavyweight items is now projected to grow at a 5.1% compound annual rate through 2027, down from 10.6% over the prior eight years, reaching an estimated $12.3 billion. Housing turnover hit a 30-year low last year, with only 28 of every 1,000 homes changing hands, a 38% drop from the 2021 pace, while the Trump administration's tariffs on aluminum and steel imports have further raised appliance costs and dampened demand. Gross margins in the segment have dipped from 28.9% in 2022 to 27.5% last year, and carriers face rising costs from diesel fuel, cargo insurance, and labor shortages. Top national providers include RXO Last Mile with $1.2 billion in gross revenue, Ryder E-commerce and Last Mile Services with $983 million, and J.B. Hunt Final Mile Services with $824 million, while a looming competitive threat is vertical integration by large retailers such as Wayfair, Lowe's, and Amazon.

Impact on stocks 4

Consumer Discretionary▼ · 3 stocks
Wayfair Inc
W
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Wayfair is a major online furniture retailer directly affected by stagnant home sales and tariffs reducing demand for big and bulky items.

The Home Depot Inc
HD
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Home Depot sells furniture and appliances, and stagnant home sales and tariffs dampen demand for these big-ticket items.

Lowe's Companies Inc
LOW
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Lowe's sells furniture and appliances, and stagnant home sales and tariffs dampen demand for these big-ticket items.

Artificial Intelligence▼ · 1 stocks
Amazon.com Inc
AMZN
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Amazon is a large retailer that may face lower demand for big and bulky items due to stagnant home sales and tariffs, though it is not a top carrier.

Off-coverage companies 1

Armstrong & AssociatesPrivate± Mixed
relevance

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