Stifel Raises Microsoft Target to $530, Keeps Neutral

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โดย GuruFocus·US·Read original
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Stifel analyst Brad Reback raised his price target on Microsoft to $530 from $450, an increase of nearly 18%, following meetings with executives, but he maintained a Neutral rating, citing an improved operating outlook yet insufficient risk-reward for a Buy. Reback's optimism centers on Copilot, with management describing the second half of 2026 as a step change in deployment, and weekly active engagement now on par with Outlook and Teams. Customer complaints have largely eased after frequent product improvements, removing a barrier to paid conversions. Monetization is accelerating through premium upgrades to E5, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and E7, with average revenue per user becoming the main growth lever. Azure provides a second pillar, as efficiency gains are expected to unlock capacity and reduce margin drag. Microsoft remains model-agnostic, combining proprietary and open large language models across Azure, GitHub, and Copilot. The $530 target validates Microsoft's AI momentum, but the Neutral rating signals caution, leaving investors to see if higher Copilot engagement translates into durable revenue while Azure efficiencies protect margins.

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