Strong Economic Data Turns From Blessing to Curse for S&P 500 Bulls

Macro
โดย Bloomberg·Read original
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Strong economic data has recently become a headwind for US equities, according to analysis from Leuthold Group. The Citi US Economic Surprise Index, currently at 50.3 after surpassing 63 in June, has been in positive territory all year, but readings above 40 have lately led to S&P 500 losses over the following three weeks, with an average recovery time of three months. Leuthold strategists found 28 such instances since 2003, and Chun Wang, director of multi-asset strategies, noted that the shift toward a "good news is bad news" dynamic has been especially pronounced over the last two to three months. Factors include geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, and concerns that persistent economic strength may prompt a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance on inflation, potentially complicating the path to the 2% target. Some market participants also suggest that solid data may already be priced in after a 17% rally since late March, or that the weakness reflects a rotation out of technology and AI names rather than a direct reaction to economic releases.

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