Supavud warns current account deficit removes room for rate cuts, flags AI bubble risk

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โดย InfoQuest·TH·Read original
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Supavud Saicheua, chairman of the National Economic and Social Development Council, warned that Thailand's current account deficit will remove room for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand, and pointed to bubble risks from investment in artificial intelligence technology. He said GDP in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 1.9 percent, down from the first quarter, while imports grew 24 percent, higher than export growth of 12 percent. This led the council to revise its current account forecast from a surplus to a deficit, a sign that the economy is overspending. Combined with high oil prices and inflation, the Bank of Thailand does not have enough supporting factors to ease monetary policy, and a deficit without offsetting capital inflows could make the baht volatile and weaken it. Meanwhile, capital inflows from foreign direct investment in AI industries such as data centers and printed circuit boards can remain a driver for about another year and a half, but there are early signs of investment exceeding demand and circular financing patterns that could lead to a bubble in the technology industry if returns from AI do not justify the investment. For second-half risks, Supavud said trade negotiations with the United States, which accounts for 25 percent of total exports or 14 percent of GDP, are the most worrying issue. If exports are affected, it will pressure the government to introduce support measures, leading to a wider budget deficit and a risk of a credit rating downgrade. Public debt including obligations under Section 28 could push the debt-to-GDP ratio close to or above 70 percent under the fiscal discipline framework, so stimulus projects such as Thai Chuay Thai must be handled carefully. Other impacts should also be considered, such as data centers consuming enormous amounts of electricity, which could force Thailand to import more natural gas and raise electricity prices, as well as relatively low employment compared with the investment amount.

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