Tesla and SpaceX valuations far exceed fundamentals, analyst says

Analyst

โดย The Motley Fool·Read original

Summary · why it matters

Tesla and SpaceX are both trading at prices that demand extraordinary future assumptions not supported by current fundamentals, according to a Motley Fool analysis. Tesla shares are down about 16% year to date at $375, with JPMorgan's Ryan Brinkman maintaining an underweight rating and a $145 price target, implying more than 60% downside, citing a P/E ratio above 180x on shrinking earnings power. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 3% to $94.8 billion, the first annual decline in the company's public history, while vehicle deliveries dropped 8.6% to 1.64 million units. SpaceX, which went public at $135 per share, peaked at $225 before falling 31% in three sessions to $154.60, and faces a potential float expansion of up to 900% by early September as insider lock-ups expire, while its AI division posted $818 million in revenue against $2.47 billion in operating losses in Q1 2026. Morningstar's discounted cash flow model places SpaceX's fair value at $63 per share, 58% below the current price, and the analysis concludes that neither stock is worth owning at current levels given the disconnect between price and fundamentals.