Tesla Down 21% in 2026 as Dan Ives Sees 70% Upside on AI and Robotics

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โดย 24/7 Wall St.·US·Read original
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Tesla shares have fallen 20.71% year to date, but Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintains a $600 bull-case target that implies roughly 70% upside by valuing the company as an AI and robotics platform rather than an automaker. Tesla currently trades at $356.58 against a Wall Street consensus target of $390.09, an implied gain of about 9%, with the consensus drawn from 34 analysts on EPS and 45 on revenue. The bull case rests on Full Self-Driving software economics with gross margins above 80%, licensing of the autonomy stack to rival OEMs, and an autonomous and AI ecosystem Ives values at over $1 trillion in market cap, alongside Robotaxi operations in seven U.S. markets with more than 380,000 unsupervised miles and nearly 1.5 million paid FSD customers globally. The bear case is well armed: Q2 2026 revenue rose 25.5% to $28.24 billion but non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed estimates by 38.51%, operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, free cash flow turned negative at $1.09 billion, and 2026 CapEx is expected to exceed $25 billion. FY2026 EPS estimates have drifted from $2.11 to $1.77 in sixty days, with 18 downward revisions against 7 upward in the trailing 30 days, while the stock carries a forward P/E of 154. In the broader auto complex, General Motors trades at $85.37, up 5.68% year to date with a target of $101.64, and Rivian trades at $15.54, down 21.16% year to date with a target of $19.23, the group's biggest implied upside at about 24% on its R2 launch and Uber robotaxi partnership.

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Electrification & Mobility▲ · 2 stocks
Robotics & Physical AI▲ · 2 stocks

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