Thailand's August 2026 inflation accelerates to 2.53%, above expectations, for a fifth straight month
MacroCommodity
Thailand's headline inflation rate in August 2026 rose 2.53% year-on-year, above the market forecast of 2.43% and marking a fifth consecutive month of acceleration, bringing average headline inflation over the first eight months of 2026 to 1.37%. The acceleration was driven mainly by higher energy and fresh food prices. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 1.44% year-on-year, putting average core inflation over the first eight months of the year at 0.94%. Energy prices in August 2026 rose 8.6% year-on-year, in line with the average diesel price of 37.6 baht per litre, up 17.7% year-on-year. The producer price index, or PPI, rose 9.1% year-on-year in August 2026, widening the gap between the PPI and the CPI to 12.7 points from 11.7 points in July, reflecting that cost pressure from energy continues to weigh more on businesses than on households. The Bualuang Securities Research team still expects headline inflation of about 2.0% year-on-year in 2026, supported by energy prices that remain elevated, fresh food prices that are likely to rise along with energy costs, and El Niño conditions that could reduce the volume of fresh food reaching the market. However, still-weak household purchasing power and intense price competition will continue to weigh on inflation.
