Thaweesuk says US bond yields above 6% could trigger global stock plunge

GeopoliticsMacro Impact 4
โดย thunhoon.com·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Thaweesuk Thammasak, an independent scholar of international economics, said at a Thun Hoon seminar that US sanctions on Iran have almost no effect because Iran has been sanctioned for 37 years and has already adapted. Iran has destroyed more than 80% of the main US bases in the Middle East and shot down more than 50 US refueling aircraft in Saudi Arabia, forcing the US to retreat to Jordan and making it unable to fly to Iran. The only remaining option is nuclear, but that is checked by Russia, China, and North Korea. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have been closed, causing a global oil shortage and oil prices will surge this October, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve having only 14 days of supply left. Thaweesuk estimates that Iran is attacking the heart of the US by pushing bond yields higher, until the US has to intervene by increasing the auction size for buying its own bonds, with BlackRock helping manage the secondary market amid foreign selling of long-term bonds. If bond yields break above 6%, it will lead to a global stock market plunge and the Fed will have to cut rates to 0% immediately, which is an opportunity to buy cheap long-term bonds and sell for profit when prices rebound. For the Thai economy, Thaweesuk sees GDP slowing and staying sluggish because the government lacks a structural reform plan, with 2028 possibly as bad as 2027, and attracting data centers does not help spread income to the grassroots. He recommends watching stocks in the photonics supply chain such as Corning, Coherent, and Fibernet, along with trends in space technology and quantum computing where China is the leader.

Impact on stocks 3

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
Coherent Inc
COHR
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Recommended as part of photonics supply chain, potential demand from space tech and quantum computing.

Spatial Computing / AR/VR▲ · 1 stocks
Corning Incorporated
GLW
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Recommended as part of photonics supply chain, potential demand from space tech and quantum computing.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks

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