THCOM wins Phase 3 edge-network auction; Asia Plus rates Buy with 11.80 baht target

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Asia Plus Securities said the TCI consortium, a partnership between THCOM and Interlink Telecom, or ITEL, has won two contracts in the Phase 3 USO auction, with a combined value of 2.448 billion baht. This breaks down into a contract for the northeastern region worth 1.884 billion baht and a contract for the eastern and western regions worth 564 million baht. Asia Plus views the news as positive for THCOM because it will bring in certain revenue over the five-year life of the contracts and will increase revenue compared with the earlier Phase 1 and Phase 2 edge-network projects, under which THCOM earned only satellite transponder service fees from the auction winners since it did not bid itself. In Phase 3, however, THCOM will earn both equipment installation revenue and satellite transponder service fees. Equipment installation is expected to take about two to three months, so revenue from this project should begin to be recognised in early 2027. That said, results for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 still look weak and the company is expected to remain in the red on normal operations, as no new customers have come in while existing customers, especially broadcasting service providers, are likely to cut usage further. Given the latest auction results, in which the company won work worth more than expected, Asia Plus has raised its 2027 profit forecast for THCOM to 729 million baht from an earlier estimate of 381 million baht, and lifted its 2027 target price to 11.80 baht from 11.30 baht using a discounted cash flow method. It also upgraded its recommendation to Buy from Trading, believing the market has already priced in the negatives, including the likely weak operating performance in the second half of 2026, while the Phase 3 edge network is a positive factor that should help the company swing to a profit in 2027 and support the share price in the near term.

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Asia Plus raised THCOM's 2027 profit forecast to 729 million baht and target price to 11.80 baht, upgrading to Buy.

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