Traders Are Most Positive on Dollar Since 2015 as Fed Hike Looms

Macro
โดย Bloomberg·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Global traders have turned the most positive on the outlook for the dollar since 2015, with wagers on a stronger dollar increasing to nearly $40 billion as of June 30, the highest amount in more than a decade, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The dollar wrapped up a 2% rise in June, one of its best monthly performances this past year, after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh vowed to restore price stability, spurring bets on interest-rate hikes. Strategists at major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs have touted a turnaround of fortunes for the US currency, as the Fed is still projected to tighten policy on a bigger scale versus some of its major peers. Traders currently see the Fed raising rates at least once this year, a stark contrast from before the start of the Iran war in late February, when they still saw the central bank lowering borrowing costs in 2026. After the US and Israel attacked Iran, disrupting a key waterway for crude tankers, oil prices surged, intensifying inflation fears and benefiting the US as the world's largest oil producer and its haven currency. Despite the optimism, some strategists argue the rally will soon run out of steam, with last week's weaker-than-expected US jobs data showing hiring slowed sharply in June, dimming bets on rate increases and leaving the dollar slightly lower so far this month.

Impact on stocks 3

Financials▲ · 2 stocks
Bank of America Corp
BAC
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Bank of America strategists tout dollar turnaround, but bank itself is not directly impacted.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Goldman Sachs strategists tout dollar turnaround, but bank itself is not directly impacted.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

JPMorgan strategists tout dollar turnaround, but bank itself is not directly impacted.

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