Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confronts a $40 trillion federal debt refinancing problem as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.705%, its highest since January 2025 and a level last seen before the 2007 financial crisis. Total federal debt stood at $39.065 trillion as of January 1, 2026, with a large share originally issued when the 10-year yielded under 2%, forcing Bessent to reissue maturing paper into a market where the 10-year yields 4.67% and the 30-year yields 5.15%. Brent crude topping $100 a barrel and weekly jobless claims falling to 187,000 have pushed about half of Federal Reserve officials to pencil in a rate hike this year, while the federal funds rate has held at 3.75% since December 2025. Corporate profit growth decelerated sharply from 6% to 1.7% quarter-over-quarter as rising yields push up mortgages, auto loans, and corporate borrowing costs. If the 10-year settles above the January 2025 peak of 4.79%, the weighted-average coupon on the federal debt stack will drift higher with every auction, intensifying pressure on Bessent and on households refinancing mortgages.
NVIDIA CorporationRising Treasury yields and potential rate hikes increase discount rates, pressuring high-valuation tech stocks like NVIDIA.