The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, which has inverted before every U.S. recession since the 1960s, has recently returned to positive territory after one of its deepest and longest inversions, historically signaling a recession may be imminent. The indicator turned negative roughly six to 12 months ahead of the last six recessions, including those in 1980, 1981–1982, 1990–1991, 2001, 2007–2009, and 2020. The latest inversion began around the 2022 inflation scare and Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle, and while the Fed has paused rate increases and the spread has normalized, no recession has yet materialized. Analysts caution that the current environment places the economy within the typical window for a downturn, suggesting investors may want to exercise caution.