Tris Rating raises Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%, expects 2.2% in 2027
MacroCommodity
Tris Rating has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP growth in 2026 to 2.0% from 1.8%, and expects growth to accelerate to 2.2% in 2027, with stronger-than-expected private investment and robust goods exports as the main factors supporting the outlook. Tris Rating stated that Thailand's economic recovery will remain uneven through 2027, as investment and exports continue to expand faster than private consumption. Meanwhile, Thailand's household debt to GDP remains high at around 87% in 2025, the highest in ASEAN, and continues to weigh on household purchasing power. On oil prices, Tris Rating lowered its average oil price assumption for 2026 to 90 US dollars per barrel from 93 US dollars per barrel, and set its 2027 assumption at 80 US dollars per barrel. As for Thailand's trade balance, it recorded a deficit of 35 billion US dollars in the first seven months of 2026 and may widen to approximately 60 billion US dollars for the full year. Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to reach 34.3 million in 2027, with Asia remaining the main source of tourists, led by China.
