The current truckload market tightening is supply-driven, with carriers roughly 12–14% underserved relative to demand, according to FreightWaves' Chart of the Week. The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index has risen above 16%, compared to just over 4% in June 2023, while the Accepted Truckload Volume Index remains essentially flat year-over-year at around 10,450. Demand has seen a modest uptick from hyperscaling AI data centers, defense spending, and reduced inventories, but total tender volumes are up only about 9%, far below the 36% surge in the second half of 2020. On the supply side, most large fleets have been reducing capacity, and net changes in operating authorities tracked by the FMCSA remain deeply negative through April, while the Montgomery-Caribe ruling further constrains broker options. With capacity growth slow and demand relatively stable, the tight cycle could last well into 2027, challenging expectations of a sharp easing.