Truflation projects the July core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will rise 0.2% month over month, with the annual rate holding at 3.3%, and says the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike interest rates for the rest of the year. The independent inflation data provider expects headline PCE to hold steady at 3.7% year over year, rising 0.19% month over month, broadly in line with market expectations. Truflation flagged four areas of increasing concern: tariffs becoming a recurring source of price resets, the Middle East conflict feeding through to jet fuel and freight costs, wage growth still running at 4.0% to 4.5%, and AI-driven electricity demand with utilities up 7.64% year over year, the highest since mid-2024. The firm also noted retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July, the first decline in nine months, and cited Walmart's slowest sales growth in six years as a sign that middle- and lower-income households are cutting back.
Walmart Inc.Walmart's slowest sales growth in six years cited as sign of consumer cutbacks.
Truflation's inflation data and Fed outlook are the subject of the article.
