TTB falls 3.45% after ING sells 18 billion baht block trade

Corporate Action

โดย Kaohoon·

Summary · why it matters

Shares of TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, closed down 10 satang, or 3.45%, at 2.80 baht after ING Bank, its second-largest shareholder, sold a block of shares worth 18.47 billion baht at an average price of 2.64 baht per share. Analysts at Krungsri Securities view the deal as slightly negative for short-term sentiment, but stress that TTB's business plan has not changed with its shareholder base. They maintain a buy rating with a 2027 target price of 3.50 baht, expecting profit growth of 3% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, and a higher dividend payout ratio of 75% of net profit, implying a dividend yield of around 6% per year. Phillip Securities agrees that the deal does not affect management or earnings, because ING has been signalling a reduction in regional investment for some time. The broker keeps its 2026 profit forecast at 21.5 billion baht, up 4.1%, with a base-case price of 3 baht and a recommendation to gradually accumulate, though short-term investors may want to wait out the initial shock. Tisco Securities notes that the market had partly anticipated this since June 2026, when ING sold back 3.3 billion shares at 2.26 baht. If the new deal is completed, ING's stake could fall to around 12%. Although ING holds two board seats, its role in operations is limited, so what changes is the shareholder structure, not the profit engine. Looking at the price chart, TTB rallied from around 1.80 to 1.90 baht through the 2.34 baht level and then accelerated to a peak around 3.10 to 3.15 baht. The drop to close at 2.80 baht is therefore a sharp consolidation after a strong run. First support is at 2.74 to 2.70 baht, matching yesterday's low. The next support is 2.64 baht, the bottom of the block trade price range. Resistance is at 2.90 baht, followed by 3.00 and 3.15 baht. If the stock holds above 2.70 baht, the broader uptrend remains intact, but a break below 2.64 baht could prompt the market to demand a deeper discount. Another attraction is the potential dividend of about 0.20 baht per share. If the price falls to 2.70 baht, the yield could be around 7.4%. Meanwhile, the bank still has about 14 billion baht remaining in its share buyback programme. Although the bank cannot use that money to buy shares from ING alone, converting it into shareholder returns could become the next piece of good news.