UBS Estimates OpenAI and Anthropic Will Drive 48% of Google Cloud Revenue Next Year

Analyst Impact 4
โดย Bloomberg·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

UBS estimates that OpenAI and Anthropic will account for 27% of Google Cloud's revenue this year, rising to 48% next year, totaling over $124 billion, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek segment featuring AI skeptic Ed Zitron. Zitron argued that this concentration exposes hyperscalers to unsustainable risk, noting that 69% of Microsoft Intelligent Cloud's year-over-year growth in 2025 came from OpenAI alone, and that without it the segment would have grown just 8%. He highlighted that Alphabet spent $44.924 billion on capex in the quarter, free cash flow turned negative at -$5.855 billion, and the buyback was suspended. Zitron also pointed to OpenAI's $20.9 billion in 2025 losses and a reportedly delayed IPO to 2027, which he called lethal for a number of people, while warning that data centers may require over $1.6 trillion in annual revenue to sustain.

Impact on stocks 4

Artificial Intelligence▼ · 3 stocks
Alphabet Inc Class C
GOOG
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Negative free cash flow, high capex, and suspended buyback raise financial risk.

Financials▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 3

Off-coverage companies 2

OpenAIPrivate▼ Negative
Capitalrelevance

Reported $20.9B losses and delayed IPO to 2027.

AnthropicPrivate▼ Negative
Demandrelevance

Concentration risk as a major customer of Google Cloud, but no direct impact.

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