UBS expects Fed to raise rates twice this year, while Citi delays rate cut to mid-2027

MacroDigital Finance
โดย สำนักข่าวอีไฟแนนซ์ไทย·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

UBS assesses that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25% in September and December this year, following stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls data. Meanwhile, Citigroup has pushed back its forecast for the Fed's next rate cut to June 2027, scrapping its previous expectations of two cuts late this year and another early next year. Earlier, UBS Global Wealth Management had expected no policy changes this year but revised its view after August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, surpassing analysts' forecast of 56,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, underscoring the strength of the U.S. labor market. UBS noted that hawkish policy communications, particularly from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole meeting, along with rising inflation risks from supply bottlenecks and strong August labor data, were sufficient to prompt a change in outlook. Currently, financial markets reflect about a 58% probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from 52% on Thursday, September 3, before the jobs report, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Citigroup also adjusted its rate path, moving its forecast for the next Fed rate cut to June 2027 from October 2026, and now expects cuts of 0.25% in June, September, and December 2027, dropping its previous expectations for cuts in October and December 2026 and January 2027. Citigroup stated that recent labor data suggests policymakers are likely to view overall employment conditions as stable and will shift focus more toward inflation. Investors will now turn attention to August CPI and PPI data due this week to further assess the Fed's rate direction.

Impact on stocks 4

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
Citigroup Inc.
C
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Citigroup pushed back its forecast for the next Fed rate cut to June 2027, scrapping prior cut expectations after strong jobs data.

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
UBS Group AG
UBSG
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

UBS revised its Fed call to two rate hikes this year after stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls.

Others▲ · 2 stocks
© 2026 MarketDXNews