UBS expects Chipotle Mexican Grill to report second-quarter same-store sales growth of 1.2%, roughly in line with the 1.3% consensus, and sees momentum improving in the second half of 2026 as pricing actions, menu innovation, and operational initiatives offset macroeconomic pressures. The firm cited menu additions like Cilantro Lime Sauce and Chipotle Honey Chicken, the Summer of Extras campaign, and a potential FIFA World Cup boost as supporting an acceleration from the first quarter. UBS maintained a $45 price target on the shares, implying upside from current levels around $35, and forecasts full-year 2026 same-store sales growth of 1.4% with pricing finishing toward the upper end of the company's 1% to 2% target range. Second-quarter restaurant-level margins are modeled at 25%, down about 230 basis points year-over-year due to higher beef, dairy, and avocado costs, but UBS expects margin improvement in the second half as food inflation eases. The firm projects second-quarter earnings per share of $0.32 and full-year 2026 earnings per share of $1.15.
Chipotle Mexican Grill IncUBS expects stronger second-half sales growth driven by menu innovation, promotions, and World Cup boost.