US 10-Year Bond Yield Falls Below 5% Ahead of Tonight's Fed Decision

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Summary · why it matters

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped below the 5% level as investors await the outcome of tonight's meeting of the US central bank, the Fed. As of 6:24 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.979%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.350%. The market is watching the Fed's monetary policy meeting outcome, as well as remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, along with the Fed officials' policy rate projections, or Dot Plot, and US economic forecasts including gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate. The latest FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates that investors assign a 92.7% probability to the Fed raising interest rates by 0.25% at today's meeting and a 7.3% probability to the Fed holding rates steady. Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer of Wilsey Asset Management, said that if the Fed decides to hold rates steady at today's meeting, it could affect the market and the Fed itself, because the market generally does not respond well to surprises, and holding rates could also damage the Fed's credibility. Meanwhile, Jonathan Pryor, co-head of foreign exchange trading at Marex, said the Fed is entering a new phase of monetary policy after appearing earlier this year to be heading into a rate-cutting cycle.

Impact on stocks 3

Others± Mixed · 3 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Market prices a 92.7% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike at tonight's meeting, implying the effective fed funds rate rises.

Off-coverage companies 1

Wilsey Asset ManagementPrivate± Mixed
relevance

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