Pressured by the US 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% intraday, spot gold remained under pressure on Tuesday, briefly falling to around 4,283 US dollars per ounce. The Bosera Gold ETF, which tracks the AU9999 index, was down 0.46% as of 1:35 pm on September 15, 2026. The US dollar index climbed sharply to around 99.5. According to the latest data from CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 92.4%. On the capital flow front, the Bosera Gold ETF saw net inflows for six consecutive days, with the largest single-day net inflow reaching 77.04 million yuan. Total inflows amounted to 214 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 35.69 million yuan. In terms of liquidity, the ETF's intraday turnover rate was 0.73%, with turnover of 307 million yuan. As of September 14, its average daily turnover over the past year was 1.34 billion yuan, and it has risen 11.47% over the past year. Shenwan Futures said the high interest rate environment is weighing on precious metals in the short term, and this week's focus will be on the outcome of the policy meeting. But in the medium to long term, the global trend of central bank gold purchases remains unchanged. China's central bank has bought gold for 22 consecutive months, which will build a solid floor for gold prices. Kaiyuan Securities noted that rate hikes are not the only factor determining gold prices. If geopolitical conflicts recur, the pace of Fed rate hikes slows, and central banks continue buying gold, gold prices may fall first and then rise.
