US August Employment Report: Recovery to +50,000 Expected, but Downside Risks Remain
MacroDigital Finance
In the August employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls are expected to recover to +50,000, following a decline of 23,000 in July. The employment component of the ISM manufacturing index, a leading indicator, came in at 51.2, marking the second consecutive month above 50 after July's 52.8, indicating expansion, but it fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, in the Conference Board's August consumer confidence index, the spread between the 'plentiful' jobs reading of 27.0 and the 'hard to get' reading of 22.5, which economists closely watch, improved to 7.5 from 2.7 in July, the highest since April, but it remains below the 11.1 level of a year ago. Consumers are pessimistic about future employment, with the proportion expecting more jobs in six months falling to 14.6, the lowest this year, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 26.1. The July JOLTS job openings figure indicates a healthy labor market, but it was due to a significant downward revision of the June data, and the underlying reality is not strong. There are concerns that the August employment report could show a second consecutive monthly decline, and a negative surprise could accelerate dollar selling.
