Financial commentators including Scott Galloway, Michael Burry and Ray Dalio have compared current stock market conditions to those in 1929, 1987 and 1999 just before massive corrections. As of August 2026, the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio has jumped above 30, a level last seen from late 1998 to the close of 2002 during the dot-com craze. Margin debt exploded roughly 50% over the past year, going from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion over the twelve months ended June 2026, according to FINRA. The ten largest companies in the S&P 500 now account for 40% of the index's total capitalization, according to UBS, making the index more concentrated than at any point since the late-1990s tech bubble. Goldman Sachs is forecasting just 3% annual returns from 2024 to 2034, while Vanguard projects around 5%.
