Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the advance estimate of real GDP for the April–June quarter showed a moderate annualized growth of 1.5 percent from the previous quarter, but argued that temporary import surges and inventory declines weighed on the headline figure, understating the underlying strength of the US economy. He pointed out that the increase in personal consumption expenditures was the biggest factor supporting growth, but given persistently high gasoline prices, some momentum is likely to fade in the second half of the year. While AI-related investment remains the main driver, he expects its net contribution to the overall US economy to be limited due to a sharp expansion in semiconductor imports, and also noted signs that non-AI investment is recovering at its fastest pace in three years. The data, which underscore the resilience of the US economy and labor market, do not challenge the Federal Reserve's view and support its near-term focus on inflation.