US long-term rates at 5% test stock market, with Jackson Hole and midterm elections in focus

Macro Impact 4
โดย moomoo証券·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

The 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.34%, its highest level since 2007, and as the 10-year yield approaches 5%, selling is spreading in the stock market, centered on AI-related hardware. This rise in rates is driven mainly by higher real yields rather than additional Fed rate hikes, and the New York Fed's 10-year term premium has climbed to around 80 basis points, its highest in 12 years. Behind this are the widening US fiscal deficit and increased Treasury supply, reduced holdings by the Fed and foreign central banks, increased corporate bond issuance by big tech, and inflationary pressure accompanied by higher oil prices. Goldman Sachs points out that with the 10-year real yield hovering near 2.5%, an adjustment is inevitable, either through lower long-term rates or a decline in risk assets. Going forward, attention will focus on the Jackson Hole conference on August 27 to 29 and the midterm elections on November 3, with the election outcome in particular seen affecting the fiscal deficit and the term premium on long-term bonds.

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