US PPI Suggests Easing PCE, Bolstering Case for a Hold at Next FOMC

Macro
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Summary · why it matters

The US June producer price index unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent month-on-month, suggesting easing pressure on the personal consumption expenditures price index and bolstering the case for a policy hold at the next FOMC meeting. The PPI rose 5.5 percent year-on-year, the lowest since March, and the core index excluding volatile fuel and food rose 0.2 percent month-on-month, though the May figure was revised lower. Among the PCE components the Fed watches closely, portfolio management fees fell 0.5 percent and airfares declined 0.4 percent. The June core PCE index due on July 30 is expected to slow to a 3.3 percent year-on-year increase, and New York Fed President Williams has also indicated that inflation has peaked.

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