US private credit market recalibrates in Q2 2026 as software falls from favor

Industry Impact 4
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Summary · why it matters

The US private credit market underwent a significant recalibration in the second quarter of 2026, with lenders and investors reassessing exposure to software and other once-favored sectors amid geopolitical turmoil and AI-driven disruption. Direct lending deal volume fell sharply to $29.2 billion across 138 transactions through June 22, well below the $74.1 billion across 217 deals in the first quarter, according to LCD data. The war in Iran and the release of Anthropic's Claude Cowork, which fueled a global sell-off of software and IT companies, compounded existing negativity and stymied M&A and buyout activity. Healthcare surpassed technology as the largest sector by new deal count, while lenders demanded pristine metrics from software borrowers, with Vista Credit Partners estimating that about 20% of software businesses are in a 'failure to thrive' category. Despite the slowdown, pricing improved for lenders, with spreads widening roughly 25 to 50 basis points, and Apollo and Blackstone led a $36 billion investment-grade structured notes financing for AI giant Anthropic, though it was excluded from direct lending volume due to its structure. Redemption pressures intensified at non-traded BDCs, with Blackstone Private Credit Fund's redemption demand climbing to 10% in Q2, while the nascent secondary market for private credit loans saw a pickup in activity, with JPMorgan trading roughly $2 billion worth of loans as of mid-May.

Impact on stocks 7

Financials · 3 stocks
Aging Population · 1 stocks
Artificial Intelligence · 1 stocks
Blackstone Group Inc
BX
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Blackstone co-led a $36B structured notes financing for Anthropic, boosting fee income, though its BDC faced redemption pressure.

Digital Finance & Tokenization · 1 stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

JPMorgan traded ~$2B of private credit loans in the secondary market, generating trading revenue.

Biotech & Genomic Medicine · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 2

Off-coverage companies 2

AnthropicPrivate▲ Positive
Capitalrelevance

Anthropic received $36B in structured notes financing from Apollo and Blackstone, providing capital for AI development.

Vista Credit PartnersPrivate▼ Negative
Demandrelevance

Vista Credit Partners estimated ~20% of software businesses are in 'failure to thrive', indicating weak demand for its lending products.

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