The US Treasury announced a market borrowing estimate of $739 billion for the third quarter of 2026, an increase of $68 billion from the May forecast. A higher-than-expected cash balance at the start of the quarter partially offset the rise, but it was not enough to compensate for the anticipated shortfall in incoming funds. Excluding the effect of the higher opening cash balance, the borrowing need exceeds the May estimate by $87 billion. For the fourth quarter, borrowing is projected at $628 billion, assuming a year-end cash balance of $850 billion. Actual borrowing in the second quarter was $190 billion, with the end-of-June cash balance at $919 billion, $1 billion above the May forecast. The Treasury is scheduled to release details of its debt issuance plan on the 5th, and the market is closely watching whether it will signal a higher share of long-term bond issuance.