Vistra Could Be 26% Below Fair Value on Power Demand Optimism

Energy Minister Eknat Prompan has unveiled a major energy restructuring plan, under which the government will reserve 10,000 megawatts of rooftop solar generating capacity specifically for the public, set at roughly 5 kilowatts per household, to spread the right across households nationwide. Under the new approach, the state will buy back surplus power and apply it as a discount on the same billing cycle's electricity bill. A 5-kilowatt system can generate about 600 to 700 units per month, worth roughly 2,000 baht or more, and the state will provide a subsidy of 50,000 baht, with the income from the generated power used to pay it off. The equipment is expected to be fully paid off in about 7 to 10 years. On cutting permitting steps, coordination will be handled solely through the distribution utilities, with a target of about 1 week for inspection and acceptance in self-consumption installations, and no more than 1 month in cases of selling power back. For the new Power Development Plan, or PDP, three goals are set: cleanest, most stable, and fairest. It targets raising the share of clean energy from the current level of just over 20% to close to 50% within 10 years, and no less than 65% in the long term, while reducing reliance on spot-market LNG in favor of long-term contracts, and opening the door to future technologies including hydrogen, geothermal, solid oxide fuel cells, and small modular nuclear reactors, or SMRs. Meanwhile, the public electricity cost that has been embedded in the power tariff structure for 30 to 40 years amounts to a burden of about 18 billion baht per year. The government has removed this burden from the structure and has already implemented a measure capping the first 200 units of household electricity at 3 baht per unit.

Westinghouse Electric is seeking a valuation of more than $50B in its U.S. initial public offering, with a filing targeted for as soon as October, though details including timing could still change, Bloomberg reported Friday. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are leading the IPO, with CIBC, J.P. Morgan Chase and Royal Bank of Canada also working on the listing. Westinghouse is jointly owned by Brookfield Renewable Partners and Cameco, which completed a deal in 2023 to buy a 49% stake in the company at a roughly $8B value. The company looks set to benefit from the Trump administration's efforts to boost the U.S. nuclear industry, and the U.S. Army recently selected it as one of five firms to build, own and operate its power plants. Westinghouse's nuclear power technology is used by 57% of the world's nuclear reactors, and it has a pipeline of as many as 91 opportunities for its latest generation reactor.

Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for S.N. Nuclearelectrica to RON 49.75 from RON 44.80, a revised price target that sets a new reference point for how the BVB-listed stock is being valued. The change reflects refreshed growth assumptions rather than a single event, with revenue growth expectations still pointing to a contraction, edging from 18.50% to 18.47%. The net profit margin assumption was cut to 7.21% from 8.02%, while the future P/E was adjusted to 93.58x from 75.82x. The discount rate was left essentially unchanged at 12.526%. The narrative around the company hinges on heavy investment in new nuclear capacity, including Unit 1 refurbishment, Units 3 and 4 and SMRs, alongside risks such as cost overruns, regulatory delays, changing EU policy and growing renewable competition.