Vistra Stock Declines 20% Over 12 Months, But AI Deals and Low Valuation Make It a Compelling Buy

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โดย The Motley Fool·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Vistra, the largest power generation and retail electricity provider in the United States, has seen its stock fall about 6% year to date and nearly 20% over the past 12 months, missing the broader energy rally. The decline followed PJM Interconnection's proposal to cap electricity capacity prices and Vistra's decision to shut down a major portion of its Moss Landing battery storage facility after a series of fires in early 2025. Despite these headwinds, Vistra remains locked into major data center deals with Meta and Amazon, and analysts expect its revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at compound annual growth rates of 15% and 16%, respectively, from 2025 to 2028. With an enterprise value of $70.7 billion, the stock trades at just three times this year's revenue and ten times adjusted EBITDA, suggesting it has shed its AI premium and now offers a more attractive entry point. The company has also bought back 30% of its shares over the past five years and maintains a low payout ratio of 15%, leaving ample room for future dividend increases.

Impact on stocks 4

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 1 stocks
Vistra Corp.
VST
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Low valuation (3x revenue, 10x EBITDA) and share buybacks make it a compelling buy.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲ · 1 stocks
Amazon.com Inc
AMZN
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Vistra locked into major data center deals with Amazon, indicating strong demand for its services.

Spatial Computing / AR/VR▲ · 1 stocks
Meta Platforms Inc.
META
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Vistra locked into major data center deals with Meta, indicating strong demand for its services.

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks

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