Wall Street analysts are forecasting S&P 500 aggregate earnings growth of 25.5% over the next five years, the highest level on record since 1995, while buy ratings on index companies have reached 59.5%, a record since 2010. The long-term earnings growth estimate far exceeds the historical average of 6.5% since 1989 and surpasses peaks seen before bear markets in 2018 and 2022. Investment manager Tobias Carlisle warns that analysts' five-year earnings growth estimates are notoriously unreliable and tend to be most wrong at extremes. The surge in optimism echoes patterns from the dot-com bubble, when buy ratings and growth expectations peaked alongside the market. Investors are cautioned that high expectations make it harder for stocks to beat forecasts and sustain upward momentum.