Wall Street is kicking off the second half of 2026 with fresh conviction that markets will grind higher despite absorbing multiple shocks. A diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and commodities just posted its strongest first-half return since 2021, even as war in the Middle East, an oil price that doubled before collapsing, and sharp swings in interest-rate expectations roiled markets. Most sell-side firms expect the economy to keep expanding, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. seeing inventories turning higher and AI spending broadening beyond hyperscale technology companies. Bloomberg's latest survey puts the average year-end target for the S&P 500 at 7,716, implying roughly 3% upside from June 30 levels after the benchmark already climbed about 9% this year. BlackRock and Invesco argue the AI trade is spreading into the physical economy, while Barclays warns the rally remains narrow, estimating that semiconductor and computer hardware companies generated around 87% of the S&P 500's first-half gains.
Barclays PLC
Invesco Plc
Meta Platforms Inc.
