Wall Street Bets on First Fed Rate Hike in Over Three Years

MacroDigital FinanceCommodity Impact 4
โดย Yahoo Finance·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Wall Street is betting on a nearly 93% chance the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this afternoon for the first time in more than three years, lifting them by a quarter point to a new range of 3.75%-4%. Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matt Luzzetti called the case for a hike strong, pointing to solid economic growth, a rebounding job market, and inflation showing limited evidence of falling back toward the Fed's 2% goal, with oil climbing back over $100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions. JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli sees a closer call, noting the Fed's preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures index has been above 3% every month this year, while estimating the three-month annualized core PCE at 2.7% through August. Luzzetti expects three total hikes, on Wednesday, in December and next March, unwinding the three risk-management cuts made in the fall of 2025, while Feroli anticipates one more hike in December. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned on X that a hike would be a policy mistake because energy prices and tariffs are supply shocks rate hikes cannot fix, and said the Fed can wait. The decision is due at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Impact on stocks 5

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

JPMorgan's chief economist Michael Feroli is quoted on the Fed rate-hike call, but the news is not about JPMorgan itself.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲ · 1 stocks
Moodys Corporation
MCO
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi is quoted warning a hike would be a policy mistake; only a passing expert mention.

Others▲ · 2 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Wall Street bets ~93% on the Fed raising rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, lifting the effective federal funds rate.

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