Wall Street Shifts to Expecting a September FOMC Rate Hike; Dollar Index Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average Again

MacroDigital FinanceCommodity Impact 4
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Summary · why it matters

Major Wall Street financial institutions have shifted to expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase concluded that the August consumer price index reading justified a rate hike and switched to forecasting an increase at the September FOMC. Short-term money markets have priced in a probability of more than 90 percent for a September rate hike, and hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller at the Jackson Hole annual symposium emphasizing the need to address inflation also bolstered rate-hike expectations. JPMorgan Chase said core PCE has remained above 3 percent since the start of the year with no visible progress toward the 2 percent target, and expects rate hikes in both September and December, whereas as of July it had assumed only a December increase. Goldman Sachs strategists forecast the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75 percent by year-end, and TD Bank also raised its forecast from 4.25 percent to 4.75 percent. Meanwhile, after Saudi Arabia halted operations on its main east-west pipeline as a precautionary measure on the 10th following repeated attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi armed group in Yemen, crude oil prices once again reached the 100 dollar level, with New York crude futures rising as high as 104.68 dollars on the 14th.

Impact on stocks 5

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 2 stocks
Citigroup Inc.
C
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Citigroup switched to forecasting a September Fed rate hike based on the August CPI reading.

JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

JPMorgan Chase expects rate hikes in both September and December, citing core PCE above 3%.

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Goldman Sachs concluded the CPI justified a September hike and forecasts the 10-year yield at 4.75% by year-end.

Others▲ · 2 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Wall Street and money markets now price a >90% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, lifting the effective fed funds rate.

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