Despite record highs for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, underlying inflation measures suggest Trump-driven price pressures are far from over. While a potential US-Iran peace deal has pushed oil below $70 a barrel from above $110, the Cleveland Fed's nowcast shows Core PCE climbing to 3.4% in May, its highest since October 2023, as higher transportation, production, and fertilizer costs ripple through the economy. The Fed's latest dot plot reveals nine of 18 FOMC participants expect at least one rate hike this year, with six forecasting multiple hikes, challenging a historically expensive stock market reliant on debt-financed AI spending.