Walmart is expected to post robust second quarter results on Thursday, even though Wall Street expects same-store sales in the US to slow. Wall Street forecast 3.7% same-store sales growth, per Bloomberg consensus data, which would mark the slowest second quarter since 2020. E-commerce, faster fulfillment, increases in membership revenue, and ongoing market share gains across income cohorts, especially wealthier households, are expected to drive results, Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joe Feldman wrote in a note to clients. However, Feldman added, those gains could be offset by general pressure on consumer spending from increased gas prices from the Iran war and broader inflation. Wall Street believes that customers shopped at Walmart more frequently during the quarter but spent less when they did, with e-commerce sales expected to have jumped 22% overall, including a 4.5% increase in the US, which could be tied to promotions Walmart dished out to compete with Amazon's Prime Day event. Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone wrote in a note to clients that he believes Walmart can still deliver an earnings beat and guidance raise if same-store sales growth slows as long as the rest of the business remains strong. In the first quarter, the retail giant said it expected net sales to increase 4% to 5% in the second quarter and adjusted earnings to be in the range of $0.72 to $0.74 in constant currency, while analysts are expecting second quarter earnings per share of $0.75 on average. Wall Street is also eager to hear about updated guidance for the rest of the year, especially how the back-to-school season is going and the retailer's holiday plans. For fiscal year 2027, Walmart forecast revenue to increase by 3.5%-4.5% and adjusted earnings of $2.75-$2.85, which was conservative compared with the nearly 5% growth Wall Street predicted and original estimates of adjusted earnings of $2.97 per share for the year. IEEPA tariff refunds were not included in the guidance, but the company said it could be eligible for a return worth roughly 0.5% of its US annual sales, which based on the 2025 revenue of $483 billion would mean a roughly $2.4 billion tailwind for the business. CFO John David Rainey said Walmart plans to prioritize price investment if it gets a refund to help counteract the effect of inflation on consumers' budgets, which could explain Walmart's price cuts on thousands of items, including beef, chips, and soda, in early July.
Walmart Inc.Expected robust Q2 results with e-commerce growth and market share gains, though same-store sales growth slows.
Amazon.com Inc
Bank of America Corp