The so-called Buffett indicator, which compares the total value of the U.S. stock market to the nation’s gross domestic product, has surged to a record high of more than 235%. Warren Buffett once warned in a Fortune article that readings above 200% are equivalent to ‘playing with fire.’ The last time the indicator crossed 200% was in November 2021, after which the S&P 500 fell more than 15% over the following 12 months. An earlier peak above 147% in March 2000 during the dot-com bubble preceded a 42% drop in the S&P 500 through the end of 2002. The milestone comes as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 53,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 have climbed 122% and 78%, respectively, over the past three calendar years, driven by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence stocks.