Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has put the likelihood of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX at more than 80% over the next year, arguing the deal fits Elon Musk's broader artificial intelligence and data strategy. SpaceX's June 2026 IPO has given the company a public stock price for the first time, making a stock-based merger easier to value and structure. SpaceX revenue rose to $18.7 billion in 2025, with its Starlink-powered connectivity unit accounting for about $11.4 billion of sales and reaching nearly 10.3 million users by the end of the first quarter of 2026. Tesla invested $2 billion in SpaceX earlier in 2026, giving it nearly 19 million SpaceX shares, or less than 1% of outstanding shares. A merger could create a vertically integrated platform spanning AI, energy, mobility, and connectivity, but Tesla shareholders face risks from SpaceX's rich valuation at 77 times trailing-12-month sales and its $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, as well as governance concerns given Musk's control of over 80% of SpaceX's voting power.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common StockMerger speculation with Tesla could affect SpaceX's valuation and structure, but risks include high valuation and losses.
Tesla IncPotential merger with SpaceX creates strategic upside but also risks from SpaceX's losses and governance concerns.