World Heads into High-Interest Era: Governments, Highly Indebted Companies, and Low-Income Earners Brace for Impact

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โดย Money & Banking·GLOBAL·Read original
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CNBC reports that global bond markets are facing heavy selling pressure, pushing bond yields to multi-year highs and raising borrowing costs across the economy—from governments and businesses to households—amid signs that the world may have to live with expensive money for years to come. Germany's 10-year bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2011, while Japan's stands above 3%. The U.S. 10-year yield has hit its highest level since November 2023, and the UK's has reached its highest since the 2008 financial crisis. The bond sell-off is driven by several factors, including heavy government bond issuance, rising oil prices, and expectations that central banks worldwide may maintain tight policies longer than anticipated. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, views this as a medium-term trend that could persist for several years. Governments with high debt and large deficits, particularly France and Japan—which have debt exceeding 200% of GDP—will be especially vulnerable. Businesses, especially small companies and the commercial real estate sector, will face higher refinancing costs, while low-income households will feel the impact first from increased debt burdens. Deutsche Bank estimates that the U.S. 10-year bond yield could rise to 5.5% within a year and 6.4% within two years, which would make total returns on holding bonds negative. Overall, if the world enters a high-interest-rate era, the heaviest burden will fall on highly indebted governments, companies reliant on borrowing, and low-income households, while investors holding cash may benefit from higher returns.

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