Yen weakness persists even after coordinated Japan-US intervention, with rising long-term yields weighing

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โดย トウシル 楽天証券の投資情報メディア·JPUS·Read original
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Even after coordinated Japan-US intervention, the dollar-yen pair has returned to yen weakness, with concerns over Japan's fiscal situation and higher crude oil prices driven by Middle East tensions supporting dollar strength and yen weakness. The dollar-yen rate, which was around 164 yen just before the intervention, strengthened to around 155.20 yen on August 3, then retraced half of that move to weaken back to around 159.60 yen. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated clearly that she would not hesitate to carry out additional intervention, but with no intervention seen since then, market caution has eased for the time being. Japan's newly issued 10-year yield briefly rose to 2.945 percent, a level not seen in 30 years, while the US 30-year bond also briefly reached the 5.3 percent range, a level not seen in 19 years. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may take some kind of action, and with the dollar-yen approaching 160 yen and long-term yields in both Japan and the US at high levels, it seems wise to stay prepared for yen-buying intervention moves. In addition, Treasury Secretary Bessent does not accept the Takahashi administration's combination of aggressive fiscal policy plus monetary easing as a package, and appears to be requesting coordinated intervention together with a Bank of Japan rate hike as a set. With April-June GDP coming in below expectations, there is also a scenario in which the Bank of Japan becomes cautious about a September rate hike, and if the impression of a cautious stance on rate hikes prevails, yen weakness could gain momentum.

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Article mentions US 30-year yield rising to 5.3%, indicating higher long-term rates, which may pressure the Fed's policy rate outlook.

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