Summary · why it matters
Yuanta Securities rates MAJOR as a Buy, expecting third-quarter 2026 earnings to recover both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, after box-office revenue in July and August grew faster than the same period last year on a larger slate of major Thai and Hollywood films. At least three films grossed more than 100 million baht each, namely The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Medium's Confession, boosting attendance and ticket revenue as well as popcorn and beverage sales. Advertising revenue is expected to keep growing at a double-digit pace, and higher cinema utilisation should help margins grow faster than revenue, since most operating costs are fixed. For the fourth quarter of 2026, earnings are expected to continue expanding strongly on carryover revenue from GDH's HENRY's First Dates and key late-year releases, namely The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping in November and Avengers: Doomsday in December 2026. Although first-half revenue fell year-on-year, a recovery in attendance in the second half is expected to offset that, with roughly 64 Thai films slated for release this year, up from 55 last year. However, given the weak first-half results, the research team keeps its 2026 profit forecast at 555 million baht, down 12% year-on-year. For 2027, earnings are expected to keep growing in line with plans to open 25 to 30 additional screens across eight new locations within 2026, from 852 screens currently, as well as to add four more IMAX screens during 2026 and 2027. In the popcorn business, run with TKN through the joint venture TKN & Major Popcorn Co., Ltd., the target for 2026 is sales of 1.5 to 2.0 million packs per month, up from about 0.4 to 0.5 million packs per month when MAJOR ran the business itself. The research team maintains its Buy rating, viewing the buyback and reduction of registered capital by 75.67 million shares, or 9.98% of all shares, as positive for shareholders, cutting registered and paid-up shares from 757.92 million to 682.25 million and raising the 2027 base value from 9.20 baht to 9.75 baht, valued using the DCF method under a WACC of 8.0% and terminal growth of 2.5%.
Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited