PJM Interconnection set an all-time peak demand record of more than 168,000 MW on July 2, requiring two federal emergency orders, a recall of generators from maintenance, activation of emergency demand response, and day-ahead prices topping $2,000/MWh. The event, which halved operating reserves to about 5,100 MW, marked the third federal emergency intervention for PJM in 2026 alone. NERC's latest Long-Term Reliability Assessment projects summer peak demand could surge by 224 GW and winter peak by 245 GW over the next decade, upward revisions of 69% and 65% from prior projections. Dr. Matthew Green of TRC Companies argues that the industry must shift from deterministic to probabilistic planning, modeling inputs as probability distributions and evaluating investments across multiple futures, to make the grid's reliability and affordability trade-offs visible before the next crisis.
