Rivian’s future hinges on the success of its newly launched R2 SUV, with the stock’s direction over the next three years tied to production volume and profitability. The company recently began delivering the smaller, more affordable R2, and its second-quarter results showed revenue rising 27% year over year to $1.66 billion, with deliveries of 12,194 vehicles beating guidance. Rivian raised its full-year delivery outlook to 65,000 to 70,000 units, but the automotive segment still posted a $36 million gross loss, though that was a sharp improvement from a $335 million loss a year earlier. The company expects a full-year adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion and plans capital spending of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion, funded by $5.3 billion in cash and short-term investments. If Rivian can scale to 200,000 deliveries by 2029 with positive gross margins, the stock could be meaningfully higher, but the investment remains speculative.
