China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd

The dairy sector saw a broad rally on July 29, with Huanlejia hitting the 20 percent daily limit, Knight Dairy surging over 18 percent, Pinwo Food and Panda Dairy rising more than 10 percent, and JuneYao Health, Sanyuan Foods, and Liziyuan among multiple stocks hitting their daily limits. A research report from China Securities shows that the dairy cow herd stood at 5.772 million head in June, down 22,000 head month-on-month, maintaining a rapid pace of destocking. Recently, bulk milk prices have risen in many regions, and the interplay of beef and milk prices is driving a positive turn in the raw milk cycle. Kaiyuan Securities notes that from 2024 to 2025, the national dairy cow herd cumulatively destocked about 550,000 head, and by the end of the second quarter of 2026, the Holstein cow herd further declined to 5.794 million head, with the pace of capacity reduction accelerating. At the same time, yield per cow growth is slowing. In the first half of 2026, raw milk output rose 2.4 percent year-on-year, while dairy product output increased 6.0 percent. On the pricing front, bulk milk prices are leading the gains, with contract prices following. Bulk milk purchase prices in major producing areas have risen sharply, with current mainstream prices at 2.8 to 3.1 yuan per kilogram, and in tight supply areas reaching 3.2 to 3.5 yuan per kilogram. Contract milk prices have turned positive year-on-year. On July 24, the fresh milk price in major producing areas was 3.06 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3 percent month-on-month and 1.0 percent year-on-year, with clear bottoming signals. Aijian Securities points out that dairy products represent the clearest direction of improvement in fund holdings in the second quarter. Active equity funds' combined holdings of Yili Group, New Hope Dairy, Youran Dairy, and China Modern Dairy increased by 12.3 percent, 18.7 percent, 17.3 percent, and 17.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, respectively. Kaiyuan Securities believes that supply contraction, price stabilization, and initial profit verification are largely in place, and raw milk reversal signals are gradually emerging. The industry may be transitioning from a left-side bottoming phase to a right-side confirmation phase. The upstream segment will benefit first with significant earnings elasticity, with a focus on Youran Dairy. The downstream competitive environment is improving and leading companies are regaining market share, with attention on New Hope Dairy and Yili Group.