Soybean Meal Futures

Tisco Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, with a fair value of 33.75 baht, and raised its 2026 profit forecast by 16% to 1.2 billion baht, citing a stronger-than-expected gross margin trend. It expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 at around 750 million baht, up 74% from the same period last year but down 3% from the previous quarter, as soybean costs are expected to remain stable while domestic soybean meal prices are likely to rise by a low single-digit percentage, pushing gross margin above 13%. Management noted that the cost structure of imported soybeans follows an inverted-U shape through the year, with the second and third quarters of 2026 being the periods when the company enjoys a cost advantage, while costs are expected to gradually increase in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, 2026 operating performance is likely to beat the original target, under which the company aimed for total revenue growth of about 15%, while the first half of 2026 grew more than 20% and machinery is running at full capacity. Revenue growth in the first half of 2026 came more from sales volume than from price increases, with soybean meal sales volume up 30% from a year earlier while average selling price fell about 7% and unit costs declined 7-8%. Soybean oil sales volume rose 28%, while average selling price fell 3-6% and costs declined 1%, reflecting that growth came from volume and procurement efficiency rather than temporary margin gains, which Tisco views as more sustainable. For 2027, growth will not be supported by volume because the company has production capacity of 7,000 tonnes per day and a utilisation rate of 99%. Growth will therefore have to come from shifting the product mix from crude oil to refined oil, expanding into higher-margin products, and increasing advertising and promotional spending to raise realised value per tonne. On the next capacity expansion, management estimates investment of about 4.5 to 6.0 billion baht, with a new plant ideally having minimum capacity of about 3,000 tonnes per day, within an optimal range of 2,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, and investment of around 1.5 to 2.0 million baht per tonne of daily capacity. However, expansion is still constrained by city planning, as the area in Nakhon Pathom province cannot expand capacity under the current city plan, so the company must wait for a new city plan. At the same time, the company is considering options to build a new plant in the central region, without yet disclosing the location, and management views demand as not a major concern and manageable. Tisco also sees a potential profit driver for TVO in 2027 from the El Nino phenomenon, as El Nino normally affects palm oil supply, which could indirectly affect demand for and prices of soybean oil. Meanwhile, risks to Brazilian soybean output could push soybean prices above 13 US dollars per bushel. Tisco maintains its buy rating on TVO using a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 times, or minus 0.5 standard deviation versus the five-year historical average. Key risks include lower-than-expected market share, weaker domestic livestock product prices, and a larger-than-expected decline in global soybean prices. Tisco expects a 2026 dividend payout of about 8%, or 2.46 baht per share, compared with a dividend of 0.90 baht per share in the first half of 2026.

Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday, with front-month contracts gaining 1 to 5 ¾ cents, as rumors of large Chinese purchases and a private export sale announcement spurred late-session buying. The USDA reported a private sale of 122,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year, while wire reports indicated Chinese buyers purchased 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Thursday. Weekly export sales data showed old-crop soybean sales at a marketing-year low of 32,157 metric tons, but new-crop sales totaled 903,920 metric tons, including 330,000 metric tons sold to China and 497,500 metric tons to unknown buyers. Soymeal futures rose 20 cents to $1.40, while soy oil was mixed. Brazilian soybean exports in July reached 13.4 million metric tons, up 9.33% from last year, with August exports projected at 9.74 million metric tons.

Soybean futures pushed further into fresh two-year highs at midday, with gains of 5 to 8 cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 5 cents to $12.05 1/2, while soymeal futures were $1.30 to $2.00 higher and soy oil futures added 2 to 7 points. USDA reported a private export sale of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. Weekly export sales data showed current-year bookings of 56,351 metric tons, within analyst estimates, and forward sales for 2026/27 at 1.537 million metric tons, the second largest for that marketing year and nearly triple the same week last year. Rabobank estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2026/27 at 178 million metric tons, down 4 million metric tons from the prior year.

Soybean futures are posting Turnaround Tuesday losses of 4 to 8 cents at midday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is down 7 and 1/24 cents at $11.82 and 3/4. Soymeal futures are $2.30 to $3.50 higher, while Soy Oil futures are down 70 to 83 points. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 66% of the US soybean crop blooming by July 19, up 6% from normal, with 32% setting pods and 8 percentage points faster than normal. Condition ratings improved 1% to 66% good to excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 2 to 369, though deterioration was noted in Missouri, North Dakota, and South Dakota, while ratings improved in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Ohio.

Soybean futures weakened on Thursday, with contracts falling 6 to 7 1/4 cents. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price slipped a penny to $11.55. Soymeal futures rose $2.00 to $4.00 at midday, while Soy Oil futures dropped 29 to 49 points. Weekly export sales data showed 188,274 metric tons of old crop soybean sales for the week of July 9, a three-week high but down 30.74% from the same week in 2025, while new crop sales of 1.77 million metric tons exceeded estimates and set a marketing-year high, bringing total new crop commitments to 4.598 million metric tons.

Soybean futures are falling back 8 ½ to 15 ¼ cents across most contracts, with the cmdtyView national average cash bean price down 14 ½ cents at $11.31 ¾. Soymeal futures are $3.40 to $4.60 higher across most contracts, while soy oil futures are 43 to 55 points lower. USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 metric tons of 2026/27 soybeans to China and 120,000 metric tons for 2026/27 to unknown destinations. Export sales data for the week of July 2 showed 2025/26 soybean sales at 54,349 metric tons, barely within the range of 50,000 to 500,000 metric tons expected by analysts surveyed by Reuters, while 2026/27 sales were 408,250 metric tons, near the high end of the 150,000 to 500,000 metric ton estimate. Soy meal sales totaled 321,513 metric tons, within the 250,000 to 600,000 metric ton estimate, and bean oil sales were just 878 metric tons. Weather forecasts show 1 to 2 inches of rain mainly south of I-80 covering much of Indiana, Ohio, southern Illinois, and Missouri, while parts of Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin remain relatively dry, with a drier pattern expected in the 8-14 day outlook. Ahead of Friday's WASDE report, a Bloomberg survey shows old crop bean stocks down 3 million bushels to 337 million bushels, while new crop stocks are seen up 22 million bushels mainly on increased acreage from the June Acreage report.

ResearchAndMarkets.com has published the Vietnam Soybean Meal Import Guide 2023-2026, a strategic tool for global soybean meal producers and exporters aiming to enter the Vietnamese market. The guide profiles the top 10 importing companies with details on import volumes, values, prices, origins, and major suppliers for the period, supplemented by an Excel data source. Vietnam's soybean meal imports reached US$2.23 billion in 2024 from around 320 buyers, before dipping to US$2.10 billion in 2025, with Argentina, Brazil, and the United States as the top three sources. The guide also covers industry trends, foreign investment opportunities, and regulatory frameworks, noting that Vietnam's limited domestic soybean cultivation drives heavy reliance on imports to meet rising demand from the livestock and aquaculture sectors.

Soybean futures surged 43 to 49 cents in the front months at midday Monday, with the cmdtyView national average cash bean price up 43 1/4 cents at $11.32 3/4. Soymeal futures gained $8.50 to $8.80, while soy oil futures rose 68 to 140 points. USDA’s FGIS reported soybean export shipments of 528,350 metric tons for the week ending July 2, up 19% from the prior week and 31.9% above the same week last year, with China as the top destination. Brazilian trade ministry data showed 14.5 million metric tons of soybeans shipped in June, well above the 13.42 million metric tons in the same month last year.

Soybean futures are mixed heading into the long Independence Day weekend, with front months up 1 to 3 cents and new crop down 1 to 2 cents. USDA reported old crop soybean export sales at just 41,786 metric tons for the week ending June 25, a marketing-year low and well below analyst estimates of 300,000 to 650,000 metric tons. New crop sales totaled 182,533 metric tons, also below expectations but 16.89% above the same week last year. Soybean meal sales reached 413,635 metric tons, near the high end of forecasts, while soybean oil saw a net cancellation of 1,517 metric tons. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported May soybean crush at 213.1 million bushels, slightly below trade ideas and down 2.02% from April but up 4.62% year-over-year.

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6.5 cents higher on Thursday morning, extending gains from Wednesday when most contracts rose 3 to 9.5 cents led by front months. Open interest increased by 11,141 contracts, indicating new buying, while 30 deliveries were made against July soybeans overnight. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price climbed 15.25 cents to $10.8525. Soymeal futures were steady to $1.90 higher, and soy oil futures were mixed, ranging from 28 points higher to 24 points lower, with 169 deliveries against July soybean oil. Markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, reopening Sunday night. USDA's weekly export sales report is due shortly, with analysts expecting 2025/26 soybean sales between 300,000 and 650,000 metric tons and new crop sales between 350,000 and 900,000 metric tons. Soybean meal sales are estimated at 100,000 to 500,000 metric tons, and bean oil sales at 0 to 13,000 metric tons. NASS Fats & Oils data showed May soybean crush at 213.1 million bushels, below trade expectations of 214.9 million bushels, down 2.02% from April but up 4.62% year-over-year.

Soybean futures are posting 12 to 15 cent gains early Wednesday morning, building on Tuesday's advances. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 7 3/4 cents to $10.70. The USDA's June Acreage report showed 85.36 million soybean acres planted, slightly above estimates and 665,000 acres higher than the March Prospective Plantings report. June 1 soybean stocks came in at 1.061 billion bushels, above the 1.049 billion bushels expected by analysts and 5.26% higher than the same period last year. Soymeal futures were steady to $2.10 higher, while soy oil futures fell 33 to 233 points, led by the front months.

Soybean futures opened Wednesday with gains of 1 to 2 cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 1.5 cents to $10.66 3/4, while soymeal futures added $2.10 to $3.10 in nearby contracts and soy oil futures fell 32 to 56 points. USDA Crop Progress data showed 93% of the U.S. soybean crop emerged as of June 21, three percentage points ahead of normal, with 9% blooming and condition ratings steady at 66% good to excellent. President Trump indicated that unfrozen Iranian funds will be used to purchase U.S. agricultural products including soybeans, reiterating the statement in a media post overnight. ANEC estimated Brazilian soybean exports in June at 15.21 million metric tons, a slight drop from the prior week's figure.