Climate Adaptation & Water▲
JPMorgan warns a global food crisis could erupt next year; A-share agricultural sector surges across the board
JPMorgan recently issued a report warning that the next global food crisis may be brewing and could erupt next year. A-share agricultural stocks responded with broad gains on August 17, with Jinjian Rice hitting the daily limit up, and Qiule Seed, Shennong Seed, Kangnong Seed, Dunhuang Seed, and Shenzhen Cereals Holdings following higher. The report expects global food price inflation to rise from 2.8 percent in the first half of this year to 5 percent in the first half of next year. It also argues that Middle East conflict has disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that a strong El Niño could reduce crop yields. The combination of these factors will hit agricultural production and keep food prices elevated through the first half of 2027. Nora Szentivanyi, the economist who led the research, said global crop prices have not yet peaked because transport of agricultural inputs such as fertiliser has been affected. This year's shock to global energy supply could double the impact of a super El Niño on food prices. The report also notes that agriculture in parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America is more sensitive to weather changes, and food accounts for a higher share of household consumption there. Emerging market economies will be hit hardest by this shock. Last year, about 645 million people worldwide faced hunger, and about 2.1 billion people faced moderate or severe food insecurity, accounting for 25.8 percent of the global population.