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Raymond James cuts airline estimates on higher fuel, upgrades Allegiant
Raymond James lowered estimates across its airline coverage universe, citing a higher jet fuel price forecast, while upgrading Allegiant Travel to Strong Buy from Outperform. The broker raised its jet fuel price forecast for the second half of 2026, 2027 and 2028 by roughly 18%, 14% and 7%, respectively, with Gulf Coast jet fuel prices up 39% quarter-to-date through August 19. Analyst Savanthi Syth said the higher fuel forecast primarily reflects elevated refining margin assumptions rather than crude prices, and pointed to Allegiant's greater quarter-to-date share pullback despite a constructive backdrop excluding fuel. U.S. TSA throughput has run about 2.6% lower year-over-year quarter-to-date versus a 1.1% decline in scheduled seats, while Raymond James raised its fourth-quarter U.S. domestic capacity growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.5% in early August. In Europe, intra-Europe seat capacity is up about 5% year-over-year over the summer, and Syth expects a favorable supply inflection heading into winter as fuel-hedge rolloffs and earnings pressure prompt capacity discipline at Ryanair, easyJet, AF-KLM, IAG and Lufthansa.